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GeopoliticsPoliticsGeopoliticsIsrael x Iran

Israel closes its airspace by...?

2 outcomes · ranked

$27.3M traded
September 30
10%
August 31
5%

Probability over time

last 30 days
13%September 30 · -3 pts over period10%

What this means

Across 2 outcomes, the market's favourite is September 30 at 10%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight susp…

Closed May 31, 2026 · awaiting resolution

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