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Tech & AIAITechFable

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

13 outcomes · ranked

$210K traded
No release by October 31
16%
October 27
16%
October 22
11%
October 29
10%
October 30
6%
October 21
5%
October 25
4%
October 31
4%
October 20
4%
October 26
4%
October 28
4%
October 24
1%

Probability over time

last 30 days
4%No release by October 31 · +12 pts over period16%

What this means

Across 13 outcomes, the market's favourite is No release by October 31 at 16%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must ei…

Resolves: Nov 1, 2026

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