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Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?

5 outcomes · ranked

$216K traded
1500+
81%
1510+
66%
1520+
53%
1530+
19%
1540+
6%

Probability over time

last 30 days
85%1500+ · -3 pts over period81%

What this means

Across 5 outcomes, the market's favourite is 1500+ at 81%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not q…

Resolves: Jul 1, 2027Source of truth: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

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