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Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

20 outcomes · ranked

$23.5M traded
Yulia Navalnaya
9%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
5%
UNRWA
4%
Pope Leo XIV
3%
International Court of Justice
3%
Donald Trump
2%
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
2%
Narendra Modi
1%
Ahmed al-Sharaa
1%
Greta Thunberg
1%
Julian Assange
1%
António Guterres
1%

Probability over time

last 30 days
11%Yulia Navalnaya · -2 pts over period9%

What this means

Across 20 outcomes, the market's favourite is Yulia Navalnaya at 9%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order a…

Resolves: Oct 10, 2026

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