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Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

20 outcomes · ranked

$22.2M traded
UNRWA
11%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
8%
Yulia Navalnaya
8%
Donald Trump
6%
Pope Leo XIV
4%
Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
4%
Narendra Modi
2%
International Court of Justice
2%
Greta Thunberg
2%
António Guterres
2%
Julian Assange
1%
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
1%

Probability over time

last 30 days
7%UNRWA · +4 pts over period11%

What this means

Across 20 outcomes, the market's favourite is UNRWA at 11%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order a…

Resolves: Oct 10, 2026

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