OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
23%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 23% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved +2 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026