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GeopoliticsPoliticsRussia ElectionMain Election

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

7 outcomes · ranked

$1.7M traded
United Russia (ER)
96%
New People (NL)
1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
0%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
0%
Civic Platform (GP)
0%
Rodina
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
95%United Russia (ER) · +1 pts over period96%

What this means

Across 7 outcomes, the market's favourite is United Russia (ER) at 96%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a conse…

Resolves: Sep 20, 2026

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