Satoshi's identity be proven by...?
2%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 2% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027
More in Crypto
Crypto-4 pts
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
↑ 90,000
65%
↑ 95,000
45%
↓ 70,000
34%
24 outcomes$73.4M vol
Crypto
When will Bitcoin hit $150k?
by December 31, 2027
27%
by September 30, 2027
22%
by June 30, 2027
15%
5 outcomes$27.3M vol
Cryptoflat
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
5%
Very unlikely$23.9M vol