Satoshi's identity be proven by...?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 2 outcomes, the market's favourite is December 31 at 7%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is definitively proven between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'. The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence confirming the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, such as a transfer from one of the original Satoshi wallets. However, a credible consensus of reporting will also be used.
Resolves: Dec 31, 2026