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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Very unlikely

-30 pts$12.6M traded

Probability over time

last 30 days
31%Yes · -23 pts over period8%

What this means

Traders currently price this at 8% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -30 pts.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to pre…

Resolves: Jul 31, 2026

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