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Trump renames AI by September 30?

Unlikely

$177K traded

Probability over time

last 30 days
8%Yes · +19 pts over period27%

What this means

Traders currently price this at 27% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs an executive order, proclamation, or presidential memorandum that adopts a new official name for artificial intelligence, or directs a federal agency or the federal government to adopt one, by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying action must replace or supersede "artificial intelligence" as the federal government's designation for the technology itself. Any replacement name qualifies, including "Superior Intelligence", "Extreme Intelligence", "Supreme Intelligence", or "Genius Intelligence"; the name chosen has no bearing on resolution. An order that directs an agency to adopt or implement such a name within a stated period qualifies. Statements, speeches, interviews, press conferences, and social media posts, including polls posted to social media, do not count. Renaming a fed…

Resolves: Oct 1, 2026

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