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U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?

Unlikely

-2 pts$166K traded

Probability over time

last 30 days
10%Yes · +0 pts over period11%

What this means

Traders currently price this at 11% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -2 pts.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. - Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models. - Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training. - Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web. - Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source w…

Resolves: Jan 1, 2027

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