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Tech & AIAITechGemini

When will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released?

6 outcomes · ranked

$188K traded
No release by November 1
80%
October 19–October 25
11%
October 5–October 11
6%
October 12–October 18
3%
October 26–November 1
2%
September 28–October 4
1%

Probability over time

last 30 days
34%No release by November 1 · +46 pts over period80%

What this means

Across 6 outcomes, the market's favourite is No release by November 1 at 80%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling …

Resolves: Nov 1, 2026

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