Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?
0%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 0% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. Over the last 7 days the odds moved -69 pts.
How this resolves
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Closed Jun 30, 2026 · awaiting resolution
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