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Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

6 outcomes · ranked

$165K traded
Hodge Conjecture
60%
No solution by Dec 31, 2027
17%
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer
16%
P versus NP
1%
Riemann Hypothesis
1%
Yang-Mills
1%

Probability over time

last 30 days
26%Hodge Conjecture · +34 pts over period60%

What this means

Across 6 outcomes, the market's favourite is Hodge Conjecture at 60%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the first qualifying Millennium Prize Problem for which an eligible AI lab announces a solution by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. If no eligible AI lab announces a solution to a qualifying problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No solution by Dec 31, 2027". If solutions to two or more qualifying problems are announced on the same calendar day (ET), this market will resolve to the problem whose name, as listed below, comes first in alphabetical order. The qualifying problems are, in alphabetical order, the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, P versus NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/). Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify. A qualifying announcemen…

Resolves: Jan 1, 2028

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