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Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

7 outcomes · ranked

$14.4M traded
United Russia (ER)
56%
New People (NL)
36%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
5%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
3%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
0%
Rodina
0%
Civic Platform (GP)
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
54%United Russia (ER) · +2 pts over period56%

What this means

Across 7 outcomes, the market's favourite is United Russia (ER) at 56%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results …

Resolves: Sep 20, 2026

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