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Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?

15 outcomes · ranked

$249K traded
Thom Tillis
12%
Mike Lee
10%
Kirsten Gillibrand
10%
Raphael Warnock
9%
John Fetterman
9%
Ruben Gallego
8%
Andy Kim
8%
Catherine Cortez Masto
8%
Mark Warner
7%
Jerry Moran
7%
Lisa Blunt Rochester
7%
Rand Paul
7%

Probability over time

last 30 days
32%Thom Tillis · -20 pts over period12%

What this means

Across 15 outcomes, the market's favourite is Thom Tillis at 12%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Senator votes "Yea" on the first Senate vote on final passage of crypto market structure legislation occurring before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, "crypto market structure legislation" is defined identically to Polymarket's "Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?" market: https://polymarket.com/event/crypto-market-structure-legislation-becomes-law-in-2026-20260727223933088 The qualifying vote is the first vote on final passage of the bill in the full Senate - not a committee vote, and not a vote on a motion to proceed, a motion to invoke cloture, or an amendment. This market will resolve to "No" if no qualifying vote occurs before January 1, 2027, or if the named Senator does not vote "Yea" on the qualifying vote for any reason - including voting "Nay," votin…

Resolves: Jan 2, 2027Source of truth: https://senate.gov

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