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Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?

15 outcomes · ranked

$1.9M traded
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf
13%
Abbas Araghchi
3%
Steve Witkoff
2%
Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah
2%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan
2%
Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
2%
Recep Tayyip Erdogan
1%
King Abdullah II
1%
Benjamin Netanyahu
1%
Pete Hegseth
1%

Probability over time

last 30 days
83%Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf · -69 pts over period13%

What this means

Across 15 outcomes, the market's favourite is Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf at 13%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement must be signed by the listed individual acting in an official capacity. The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran must both be parties to the agreement; however, it is not required that representatives of either or both countries sign the agreement in order for it to qualify. The listed individual may sign on behalf of either party, a third-party state, an international organization, or any other party to the agreement. Both physical signatures and officially issued electronic signatures will qualify as signing. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant governments and…

Resolves: Aug 1, 2026

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