Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
3 outcomes · ranked
$1.8M tradedProbability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 3 outcomes, the market's favourite is No Hormuz Agreement at 96%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; R Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Republican Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "Hormuz Agreement; D Senate" if a Hormuz Agreement is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. This market will resolve to "No Hormuz Agreement" immediately if a Hormuz Agreement is not announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Hormuz Agreement: A "Hormuz Agreement" will be considered to have occurred if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the Strait of Hormuz is announced by October 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal,…