Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
3 outcomes · ranked
$7.4M tradedDecember 31, 2026
94%
September 30, 2026
88%
July 31, 2026
46%
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 3 outcomes, the market's favourite is December 31, 2026 at 94%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
This is a market on the likelihood of Russia capturing Kostyantynivka by a specific date.
Closed Dec 31, 2025 · awaiting resolution
More in Geopolitics
Geopolitics-2 pts
Netanyahu out by...?
December 31
46%
July 31
1%
2 outcomes$123.4M vol
Geopolitics-1 pt
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
80%
Delcy Rodríguez
16%
María Corina Machado
2%
16 outcomes$93.1M vol
Geopolitics-2 pts
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 31
2%
July 31
1%
2 outcomes$61.0M vol