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GeopoliticsOilIranTrump

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

6 outcomes · ranked

$1.7M traded
30+
3%
50+
1%
40+
1%
80+
0%
100+
0%
60+
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
94%30+ · -91 pts over period2%

What this means

Across 6 outcomes, the market's favourite is 30+ at 3%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is …

Resolves: Jul 31, 2026

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