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PoliticsPoliticsElectionsNov 4 Elections

AK-AL House Election Winner

4 outcomes · ranked

$209K traded
Republican Party
98%
Bill Hill
2%
Democratic Party
0%
Jim McDermott
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
87%Republican Party · +11 pts over period98%

What this means

Across 4 outcomes, the market's favourite is Republican Party at 98%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources, except if that candidate is a listed option. Candidates who are listed options will not be considered to repres…

Closed Nov 4, 2026 · awaiting resolutionSource of truth: https://www.fec.gov/

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