Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
6 outcomes · ranked
$283K tradedProbability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 6 outcomes, the market's favourite is Remain 40–60% at 99%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separate from Canada?" For the purposes of this market, "Remain" refers to the option that Alberta should remain a province in Canada, and "Leave" refers to the option that the Government of Alberta should commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on separation. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Remain" and "Leave" on Question 10. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Remain" and "Leave". Percentages wi…