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PoliticsPoliticsMacro Election 2Main Election

Brazil Presidential Election

2 outcomes · ranked

$172.4M traded
Flávio Bolsonaro
84%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
16%

Probability over time

last 30 days
40%Flávio Bolsonaro · +44 pts over period84%

What this means

Across 2 outcomes, the market's favourite is Flávio Bolsonaro at 84%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Closed Oct 5, 2026 · awaiting resolution

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