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Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

17 outcomes · ranked

$4.0M traded
Flávio Bolsonaro
80%
Renan Santos
11%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
4%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Ronaldo Caiado
1%
Camilo Santana
1%
Romeu Zema
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
0%
Jair Bolsonaro
0%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
63%Flávio Bolsonaro · +18 pts over period80%

What this means

Across 17 outcomes, the market's favourite is Flávio Bolsonaro at 80%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the second-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results…

Resolves: Oct 4, 2026

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