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PoliticsBrazilPoliticsElections

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

13 outcomes · ranked

$304K traded
Lula
75%
Flavio Bolsonaro
26%
Ronaldo Caiado
0%
Zema
0%
Renan Santos
0%
Pablo Marçal
0%
Escritor Augusto Cury
0%
Rui Costa Pimenta
0%
Clariana Barao
0%
Hertz Dias
0%
Samara
0%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
90%Lula · -16 pts over period75%

What this means

Across 13 outcomes, the market's favourite is Lula at 75%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the B…

Resolves: Oct 5, 2026Source of truth: https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/

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