Skip to content
PoliticsWorldBulgariaPolitics

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

9 outcomes · ranked

$411K traded
Iotova 20-30%
41%
Iotova 10-20%
22%
Iotova <10%
14%
Iotova 40%+
11%
Iotova 30-40%
6%
Gyurov 20-30%
6%
Gyurov 30%+
5%
Gyurov <10%
0%
Gyurov 10-20%
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
13%Iotova 20-30% · +28 pts over period41%

What this means

Across 9 outcomes, the market's favourite is Iotova 20-30% at 41%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

The first round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election is currently expected to be held on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. The candidates named in this market are individual candidates appearing on the first round ballot. They do not represent party options, and this market will not resolve based on the party affiliation of any candidate. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets…

Resolves: Oct 25, 2026

More in Politics