How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Across 2 outcomes, the market's favourite is ≤46 and ≤192 at 99%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.
How this resolves
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of the Republican Party’s seat count in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a…