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PoliticsMain ElectionMiddle EastLebanon

Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winner

23 outcomes · ranked

$620K traded
Lebanese Forces (LF)
2%
Amal Movement (Amal)
1%
Hezbollah (Hezb)
1%
Free Patriotic Movement (FPM)
0%
Union Party (UP)
0%
Mada Party (Mada)
0%
National Dialogue Party (NDP)
0%
Kataeb Party (Kataeb)
0%
Marada Movement (MM)
0%
Taqaddom Party
0%
Islamic Charitable Projects Association (ICPA)
0%
Popular Nasserist Organization (PNO)
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
3%Lebanese Forces (LF) · -1 pts over period2%

What this means

Across 23 outcomes, the market's favourite is Lebanese Forces (LF) at 2%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament. If the results are not known definitively by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this marke…

Closed May 31, 2026 · awaiting resolution

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