Skip to content
PoliticsMidtermsHouse ElectionsNew York Midterm

NY-17 House Election Winner

2 outcomes · ranked

$329K traded
Cait Conley (D)
99%
Mike Lawler (R)
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
64%Cait Conley (D) · +36 pts over period99%

What this means

Across 2 outcomes, the market's favourite is Cait Conley (D) at 99%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reportin…

Closed Nov 4, 2026 · awaiting resolutionSource of truth: https://www.fec.gov/

More in Politics