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PoliticsMidtermsElectionsUnited States

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

10 outcomes · ranked

$262K traded
Below 190
28%
190-194
15%
195-199
11%
200-204
9%
210-214
8%
215-219
8%
205-209
8%
220-224
8%
225-229
4%
230+
2%

Probability over time

last 30 days
29%Below 190 · -1 pts over period28%

What this means

Across 10 outcomes, the market's favourite is Below 190 at 28%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or …

Resolves: Nov 3, 2026

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