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PoliticsMidtermsElectionsUnited States

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

10 outcomes · ranked

$289K traded
Below 190
26%
200-204
18%
190-194
14%
195-199
14%
205-209
11%
210-214
9%
215-219
5%
225-229
5%
220-224
3%
230+
3%

Probability over time

last 30 days
20%Below 190 · +5 pts over period26%

What this means

Across 10 outcomes, the market's favourite is Below 190 at 26%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party …

Resolves: Nov 3, 2026

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