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PoliticsMidtermsUnited StatesElections

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

11 outcomes · ranked

$2.7M traded
≤47
24%
51
18%
50
16%
49
14%
48
12%
52
10%
53
3%
54
2%
55
1%
57+
1%
56
1%

Probability over time

last 30 days
26%≤47 · -2 pts over period24%

What this means

Across 11 outcomes, the market's favourite is ≤47 at 24%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate ele…

Resolves: Nov 3, 2026

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