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São Paulo Governor Election Winner

5 outcomes · ranked

$291K traded
Tarcísio de Freitas
97%
Fernando Haddad
3%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
0%
Márcio França
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
94%Tarcísio de Freitas · +4 pts over period97%

What this means

Across 5 outcomes, the market's favourite is Tarcísio de Freitas at 97%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Resolves: Oct 4, 2026

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