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São Paulo Governor Election Winner

5 outcomes · ranked

$226K traded
Tarcísio de Freitas
91%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Kim Kataguiri
0%
Márcio França
0%
Erika Hilton
0%

Probability over time

last 30 days
83%Tarcísio de Freitas · +8 pts over period91%

What this means

Across 5 outcomes, the market's favourite is Tarcísio de Freitas at 91%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Resolves: Oct 4, 2026

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