S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on July 27?
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 46% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. It's close to a coin flip, so the crowd genuinely isn't sure. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, July 27, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Monday, July 27, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If SPX does not trade at all during the regular sessi…