Skip to content
PoliticsTexas SenateTexas MidtermSenate Elections

Texas Senate Election Winner

2 outcomes · ranked

$2.2M traded
James Talarico (D)
65%
Ken Paxton (R)
36%

Probability over time

last 30 days
51%James Talarico (D) · +14 pts over period65%

What this means

Across 2 outcomes, the market's favourite is James Talarico (D) at 65%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associat…

Resolves: Nov 4, 2026

More in Politics