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Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

9 outcomes · ranked

$410K traded
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
94%
Flavio Bolsonaro
79%
Renan Santos
13%
Romeu Zema
4%
Ronaldo Caiado
4%
Michelle Bolsonaro
3%
Jair Bolsonaro
2%
Fernando Haddad
2%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%

Probability over time

last 30 days
79%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva · +15 pts over period94%

What this means

Across 9 outcomes, the market's favourite is Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva at 94%. Because these are separate markets, probabilities need not sum to exactly 100%.

How this resolves

General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior El…

Resolves: Oct 4, 2026

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