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Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?

Very unlikely

+1 pt$221K traded

Probability over time

last 30 days
21%Yes · -18 pts over period3%

What this means

Traders currently price this at 3% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward no. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.

How this resolves

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Spanish government explicitly claims that Moroccan authorities deliberately caused or facilitated the influx of migrants that occurred in the Spanish territory of Ceuta on July 30, 2026, by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Such a claim requires an on-the-record public statement issued by an authorized person or entity representing the Spanish Central government, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Moroccan authorities deliberately caused or facilitated the influx. A statement from a lawmaker speaking in their own capacity or on behalf of a party not in government will not alone qualify. Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. Statements that do not attribute deliberate intent to Morocco (e.g., "this would not have hap…

Resolves: Sep 1, 2026

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