Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
98%chance of yes
Probability over time
last 30 daysWhat this means
Traders currently price this at 98% — the market's collective estimate that it happens. The market leans toward yes, though it's far from settled. The odds have been broadly stable over the last week.
How this resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolves: Jan 1, 2027
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